← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 43% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +9% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 23' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 31' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 36' | 🟨 | Niklas Süle · Borussia Dortmund |
| 53' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 56' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln |
| 71' | ⚽ | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kingsley Schindler · 1. FC Köln |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 21 |
| 16 | On target | 13 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Benno Schmitz · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1661.76 | 1787.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.21 | -21.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 24.60 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |