← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Sep 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 54% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Hertha win | 21% | 19% | 4.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +3% |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Lucas Tousart · Hertha |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 64' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jean-Paul Boëtius · Hertha |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marlon Mustapha · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Christensen · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days | 623.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1630.03 | 1530.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.07 | 16.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |