← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, May 7, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70% | 73% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 5.74 | fair |
| Greuther Furth win | 13% | 15% | 8.50 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Greuther Furth +1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Borussia Dortmund +1.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 69% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |