← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67% | 76% | 1.44 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.40 | fair |
| Bochum win | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Bochum −1.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 61% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 39% | 3.28 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Sebastian Polter · Bochum |
| 8' | ⚽ | Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 31' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 35' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 54' | 🟨 | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jürgen Locadia · Bochum |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Miloš Pantović |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tom Rothe · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonios Papadopoulos · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Zoller · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 515.00 |
| 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1796.81 | 1557.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.44 | -27.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 63.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.32 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |