← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 52% | 58% | 1.90 | value: +9% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 25% | 20% | 4.03 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Borussia Dortmund −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 41% | 2.79 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Dan-Axel Zagadou · Borussia Dortmund |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 26' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 32' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Dahoud · Borussia Dortmund |
| 70' | ⚽ | Marius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund |
| 74' | ⚽ | Youssoufa Moukoko · Borussia Dortmund |
| 81' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| coach days | 446.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1798.74 | 1627.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.75 | 4.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 46.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 2.95 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.61 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |