← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 37% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Wolfsburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lukas Nmecha · Wolfsburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund |
| 80' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1696.78 | 1813.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.22 | 9.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 26.74 |
| state index | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |