← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 68% | 72% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.27 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 13% | 10% | 7.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.64 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 13' | 🟨 | Nico Schulz · Borussia Dortmund |
| 35' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Borussia Dortmund |
| 50' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marcus Ingvartsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Niklas Tauer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1891.54 | 1683.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.76 | 11.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.72 | 26.48 |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |