← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Wed, May 12, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 63% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +1 | 50% | 1.97 |
| FC Schalke 04 +1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 64% | 1.80 | value: +14% |
| Under | 47% | 36% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 18' | ⚽ | Dedryck Boyata · Hertha |
| 43' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 54' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · FC Schalke 04 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · FC Schalke 04 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dedryck Boyata · Hertha |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 88' | 🟥 | Dodi Lukebakio · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Michelbrink · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 72.00 |
| 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1411.46 | 1561.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.61 | 23.20 |
| eye test v1 | -1.33 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 24.09 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |