← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 53% | 47% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.24 | value: +9% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 23% | 27% | 4.22 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 2.94 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Sasa Kalajdzic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 21' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 28' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · VfB Stuttgart |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · VfB Stuttgart |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ansgar Knauff · Borussia Dortmund |
| 82' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marwin Hitz |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 496.00 |
| 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1620.81 | 1730.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.09 | -11.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.56 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |