← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, May 24, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 70% | 60% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | 5.41 | value: +17% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 12% | 18% | 8.06 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| RB Leipzig +1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 2.86 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 13' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 17' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · RB Leipzig |
| 20' | 🟨 | Pierre Kunde · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 36' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 48' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 4 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | OPEL ARENA |
| 🟨 |
| Jeremiah St. Juste · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 205.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1649.91 | 1877.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.40 | 8.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |