← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 77% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.70 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 9% | 5% | 12.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| RB Leipzig −1.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 73% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 27% | 3.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand