← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 46% | 42% | 2.13 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29% | 25% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.90 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 53% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 47% | 2.35 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Jürgen Locadia · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 38' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 55' | ⚽ | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 69' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 78' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 78' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 79' | ⚽ | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| 84' |
| 🟥 |
| Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Baumann · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1728.00 | 1363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1668.51 | 1752.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.46 | -18.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |