← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 34% | 29% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 31% | 4.27 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 32' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 898.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1622.42 | 1754.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.64 | -11.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 55.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 22.99 | 24.99 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |