← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 65% | 57% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.21 | value: +16% |
| Hertha win | 16% | 20% | 6.07 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1567.00 |
| 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1570.72 | 1688.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.75 | 40.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| league points | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 72.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 2.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.79 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |