← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 54% | 50% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.22 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 23% | 28% | 4.28 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 891.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 4.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1441.47 | 1609.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.66 | -16.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |