← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.19 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 20% | 17% | 4.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 6 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | BayArena |
| coach days |
| 124.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1674.86 | 1721.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.72 | -13.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| league points | 51.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.79 | 25.76 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |