← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 42% | 34% | 2.32 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 33% | 4.01 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 884.00 | 1188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1717.86 | 1800.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.68 | 20.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.79 |
| state index | -0.00 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |