← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.28 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 20% | 18% | 4.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 43' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Moussa Niakhaté · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days |
| 732.00 |
| 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1524.64 | 1749.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | 45.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| league points | 36.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.14 |
| state index | 0.23 | 1.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |