← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 86% | 78% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 10.00 | value: +40% |
| Nurnberg win | 4% | 8% | 22.23 | value: +78% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Nurnberg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niklas Süle · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 86.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1439.20 | 1905.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.57 | 15.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 2.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| league points | 18.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 17.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 23.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.01 |
| state index | -0.25 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |