← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 42% | 33% | 2.34 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 33% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1152.00 | 573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1615.97 | 1750.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.08 | 32.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 27.80 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |