← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 65% | 76% | 1.48 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.63 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 14% | 8% | 7.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mario Götze · Borussia Dortmund |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Salif Sané · FC Schalke 04 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 60' | 🟥 | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | ⚽ | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 65' | 🟥 | Marius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1888.30 | 1641.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.98 | -21.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 69.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 25.44 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |