← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.29 | value: +4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 20% | 19% | 4.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 17.00 |
| 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1527.95 | 1660.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.65 | -38.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.30 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| league points | 31.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.79 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |