← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 65% | 53% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.89 | value: +18% |
| SC Freiburg win | 15% | 23% | 6.37 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 59' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mario Götze · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2698.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1630.30 | 1878.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.08 | 9.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 25.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |