← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 75% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.43 | value: +57% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 5% | 8% | 17.96 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 20' | 🟨 | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 41' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 55' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| coach days |
| 1139.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 8.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1551.30 | 1896.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.69 | 23.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 2.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 37.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 14.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 2.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.37 | 2.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |