← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 65% | 65% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.68 | value: +11% |
| Wolfsburg win | 14% | 11% | 6.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 25' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 28' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 286.00 |
| 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1729.93 | 1609.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.66 | 3.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 55.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.14 | — |
| state index | 1.23 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |