← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
| Hertha win | 15% | 15% | 6.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · Hertha |
| 17' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 27' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · RB Leipzig |
| 56' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 272.00 |
| 1518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1704.25 | 1579.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.15 | -14.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| league points | 49.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.23 | — |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |