← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 49% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +7% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1124.00 | 849.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1600.86 | 1754.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.30 | -29.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 28.02 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |