← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 86% | 87% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.62 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 4% | 3% | 25.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 259.00 |
| 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1889.22 | 1519.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.71 | -23.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.87 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 57.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.26 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.90 | — |
| state index | 2.02 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | -1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |