← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 48% | 57% | 2.02 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.61 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 25% | 21% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bastian Oczipka · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 15.00 |
| 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1555.20 | 1696.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -65.06 | 3.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| league points | 23.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.91 | 23.53 |
| state index | -1.16 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |