← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 47% | 45% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.65 | fair |
| Hertha win | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 14' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaney · Borussia Dortmund |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dan-Axel Zagadou · Borussia Dortmund |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dan-Axel Zagadou · Borussia Dortmund |
| 52' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · Hertha |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 85' | 🟥 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Schmelzer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1504.00 |
| 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1586.55 | 1763.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.42 | -16.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.32 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |