← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 74% | 77% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 5.99 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 10% | 7% | 9.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Steven Zuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emiliano Insúa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marc-Oliver Kempf · VfB Stuttgart |
| 84' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 251.00 |
| 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1759.65 | 1504.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.18 | -8.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| league points | 54.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.95 | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |