← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 51% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 20% | 22% | 4.78 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 17' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mark Uth · FC Schalke 04 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · FC Schalke 04 |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 68' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 1096.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1592.00 | 1519.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.65 | 7.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.91 | — |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |