← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 47% | 57% | 2.06 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 18% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Florian Neuhaus · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 68' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 814.00 |
| 387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1674.53 | 1581.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.71 | 0.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.99 | — |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |