← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 42% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.49 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 611.00 | 793.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1744.87 | 1795.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.12 | 18.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| league points | 22.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 27.43 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |