← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 82% | 86% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.09 | fair |
| Hannover win | 6% | 4% | 17.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 24' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kevin Akpoguma · Hannover |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | ⚽ | Mario Götze · Borussia Dortmund |
| 67' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 90' | ⚽ | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 209.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1888.69 | 1564.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.41 | -19.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 45.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 26.94 |
| state index | 1.39 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |