← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.92 | value: +4% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 15% | 15% | 6.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | 🟨 | Michaël Cuisance · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 750.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1762.95 | 1671.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.87 | 14.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| league points | 39.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.55 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |