← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 63% | 54% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 34% | 4.58 | value: +57% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 16% | 11% | 6.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1022.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1541.89 | 1891.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.35 | 34.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.18 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |