← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 89% | 85% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 9% | 13.32 | value: +23% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 4% | 6% | 23.84 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 998.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1971.88 | 1530.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.24 | -14.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |