← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +11% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 25% | 24% | 3.86 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 29' | 🟨 | Julian Weigl · Borussia Dortmund |
| 36' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Borussia Dortmund |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 52' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 55' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 73' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | 🟨 | Niklas Süle · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marwin Hitz · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1857.00 | 1983.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.09 | -56.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | 2.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.19 | 27.88 |
| state index | 1.57 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |