← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 68% | 72% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +5% |
| Nurnberg win | 12% | 7% | 8.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Yuya Kubo · Nurnberg |
| 9' | ⚽ | Jacob Bruun Larsen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 32' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 74' | ⚽ | Manuel Akanji · Borussia Dortmund |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 88' | ⚽ | Julian Weigl · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1703.53 | 1530.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.46 | -5.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.32 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |