← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 79% | 73% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.64 | value: +7% |
| Hannover win | 8% | 13% | 12.40 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 14' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · Hannover |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matthias Ostrzolek · Hannover |
| 55' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tin Jedvaj · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 90' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 437.00 | 437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1752.95 | 1632.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.31 | 18.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.03 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |