← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 43% | 39% | 2.27 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 34% | 37% | 2.85 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 73' | ⚽ | Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| coach days |
| 831.00 |
| 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1652.14 | 1701.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.60 | -11.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 52.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.17 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |