← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 73% | 77% | 1.34 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 10% | 6% | 9.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 155.00 |
| 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1717.44 | 1515.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.63 | 26.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 55.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.08 | — |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |