← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 52% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 24% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 34' | 🟨 | Łukasz Piszczek · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 210.00 |
| 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1575.36 | 1719.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.56 | 2.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 37.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.63 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |