← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +6% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 34% | 29% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 659.00 |
| 810.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1651.63 | 1640.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.38 | 28.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 23.70 | — |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |