← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 45% | 42% | 2.16 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.74 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 63' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · Borussia Dortmund |
| 79' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 141.00 |
| 416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1706.53 | 1662.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.19 | 21.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 22.46 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |