← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 37% | 40% | 2.67 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 28' | ⚽ | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
| 84' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 196.00 | 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1707.70 | 1758.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.81 | -5.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 36.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 24.09 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |