← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 18% | 21% | 5.29 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| coach days |
| 409.00 |
| 774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1651.15 | 1581.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.17 | 4.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 48.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.46 | — |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |