← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.66 | value: +4% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 128.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1713.05 | 1562.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.74 | 27.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 48.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.02 | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |