← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 54% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 3.98 | fair |
| Hannover win | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 51' | 🟨 | Diego Demme · RB Leipzig |
| 53' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 67' | 🟨 | Oliver Sorg · Hannover |
| 70' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 71' | ⚽ | Salif Sané · Hannover |
| 76' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Hannover |
| 84' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · Hannover |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · RB Leipzig |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 395.00 |
| 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1520.60 | 1670.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.27 | 26.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.52 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |